November 12, 2016

Is HMCS Charlottetown being overhauled in the French Riviera?

HMCS Charlottetown on October 19th 2016 in the Port of Bergen Norway ( loc: 60°24'04.9"N 5°18'36.9"E )
Photo credit (used with permission): Magne Turøy, originally published in nordhordland.no
Last year, on the way to two multinational exercises, the Royal Canadian Navy Iroquois-class destroyer HMCS Athabaskan ran into engine trouble and had a new engine installed while overseas in the UK (ref: here). There has been no Department of National Defence press release (here), and no mainstream media announcement (here) that there is any issue with the HMCS Charlottetown, however, I believe signs point to there being a serious problem with her, and major repairs are likely underway at the French Naval yard in Toulon (arsenal de Toulon).

Vice-Admiral Ron Lloyd (@Comd_RCN) posted to Twitter on October 22nd that the HMCS Charlottetown was the vanguard of the mission to escort the Russian Task Group headed to the Mediterranean.  In case you were unaware, the Russian Navy is making a major show of force in the Mediterranean by deploying a sizeable flotilla of ships, and reportedly submarines, in the Mediterranean, and off the coast of Syria. During their transit from the home of the Russian Northern Fleet (Murmansk) to the Mediterranean, a flotilla of NATO ships shadowed them for political as much as military reasons.

Publicly, an unknown number of NATO ships shadowed the Russian Heavy Aircraft-Carrying Missile Cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov and its flotilla of escorts and auxiliary ships.  However, we may be able to extrapolate what NATO deployed from the evidence they have made available by OSINT / SOMINT sources.

There are two Standing NATO Maritime Groups (SNMGs) which conduct patrols with NATO interests in mind.  The second (SNMG2) is actually split in two parts, and HMCS Charlottetown is the lead ship of "SNMG2 TU02" (Standard NATO Maritime Group 2 Task Unit 2).
SNMG2 TU02 is comprised of three ships:
  • Royal Canadian Navy HMCS Charlottetown, Halifax-class frigate
  • Royal Danish Navy HDMS Absalon (L16), lead vessel of the Absalon Class Combat / Flexible Support Ship
  • Spanish Fleet Replenishment Ship SPS Cantabria (A15), a Patino Class Auxiliary Oiler and Replenishment Ship
Since VAdm Lloyd specifically touted the HMCS Charlottetown, commanded by RCN Commander Andrew Hingston, as the vanguard keeping an eye on the Russian carrier task group on the 22nd, and the HMCS Charlottetown left port at Bergen on Oct 19th, I find it extremely interesting that after only ten days at sea, they came into harbour at military port of Toulon, where 60% of the French Navy is stationed, including their aircraft carrier, and nuclear attack submarines.  Toulon is also where heavy refurbishment and dry-dock operations are performed.

As far as I understand, the HMCS Charlottetown, since October 29th, is still in the French Navy port of Toulon.  While I'm sure the crew aboard the ship are very excited about having a vacation in the French Riviera after only ten days at sea, I suspect that wasn't the plan.  I suspect that one of the engines or turbines blew either when it was conducting exercised before going to Bergen, or on the way from Bergen to the Mediterranean, either way, I strongly believe the HMCS Charlottetown is sidelined in Toulon until they can replace whatever major component is needed.

I also suspect that if a turbine or engine is needed that it won't be available in Tulon, and will need to be airlifted from Halifax or Esquimalt which will take time, and a CC-177.  I'm still looking to see if I can find out if a CC-177 flew into the Toulon airport recently, but haven't found any data to confirm or deny.

This is complete conjecture of course, I don't *know* she is undergoing heavy maintenance, but my angle is simple:
  • The lead ship of a Task Unit would not sit back while the Danish command vessel stood toe to toe with the Russian flotilla.
  • No Navy deployment schedules a stop for this long after only ten days at sea.
  • They could have stopped anywhere for fuel or to restock, but they went out of their way to stop at a large military port with full repair facilities.
  • The crew are getting shore leave and seeing the local sites, showing they're still there, or have been up until very recently.
These four things together lead me to believe the ship is laid up, and incapable of performing it's job for NATO, at the moment.

Location Data Provided by HMCS Charlottetown AIS beacon transponder: (Zoom out for more)

October 03, 2016

DND downplays operational impact of Open Skies restrictions by Russia, contrasting the DoD

(U) Canadian and American airmen load wet film in an observation camera
 Photo by Public Affairs Photographer Warrant Officer Robert Granger,
Director General Public Affairs, Ottawa. (IS2007-6013)
Exercising their Open Skies Treaty right, the Russian Federation performed overflights of Eastern Canada at the end of August 2016. The Treaty on Open Skies is a transparency / arms control and verification agreement between 34 countries, which Canada and Russia are signatory to.  Since there was no press release put out by the Department of National Defence about the overflight, I requested an interview to discuss the recent overflight, and other Open Skies topics, with a representative of the Department of National Defence.  Lieutenant-Colonel Veillette, Section Head of Strategic Joint Staff, Arms Control and Verification 4, agreed to meet and speak with me, on the record.

As background to this, you may recall the testimony before congress of Admiral Cecil Haney (Commander, U.S. Strategic Command) February 24th 2016 at the meeting of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee on U.S. Strategic Forces Posture, if not here it is. You may remember Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart (Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency) speaking at the March 2nd 2016 House Armed Services Committee hearing on World Wide Threats; if not, here it is.  You may remember Mr. Brian P. Mckeon (Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Department of Defense) speaking at the April 14th 2016 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Missile Defeat Posture and Strategy of the United States; if not, here it is.  To sum up, they all spoke rather negatively about Russia and the Open Skies Treaty, painting the Russians as abusing the spirit of the agreement and using it to conduct "foundational intelligence", as well as slamming the Russians' plans to upgrade to an "electro-optical sensor" from wet film.  Perhaps you recall their depiction of the restrictions to Open Skies flights over Russia, phrased to suggest the flights were blocked, when they were not.  Perhaps you remember that Russia was being accused of being in contravention of the treaty.  Then there was the 2016 United States Department of State Compliance Report (here) that outlined what were supposed to be major violations of the treaty in 2015.  There were threats of retaliation, described at length by the House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce, Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes and Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry in a letter to President Obama here.

The Russians came back to Canada for their most recent overflight, with the newly painted, and digital electro-optical sensor-outfitted, Russian Federation Open Skies-approved Tupolev Tu-154M RF-85655.  It was the first Canadian overflight by the Russians to use their new electro-optical sensor, approved by the OSCC in June 2016.  One week prior, the Russians performed an overflight of the United States, with the same digital electro-optical sensor, despite the objections raised in the spring before the congress and threats from congressmen.  Regarding what some call "advanced sensors" used on the Russian open Skies missions, Lieutenant-Colonel Veillette did not use US Lt.Gen Stewart's "Polaroid vs 1080P" comparison, voiced on March 2nd 2016 before the House Armed Services Committee hearing on World Wide Threats. Canadian Lieutenant-Colonel Veillette stated:
"30cm resolution for digital, 30cm for wet film; it's like, what's heavier? 5 pounds of iron or 5 pounds of (lead)? 30cm is 30cm." 
The Lieutenant-Colonel, in stark contrast with US officials, is clearly not worried about the new digital electro-optical sensors, which were framed as "advanced sensors" by the American media, fueled by US Government officials' statements.  Before being approved, the sensors were vetted by a multi-national team representing the nations of the OSCC; 30cm resolution is the treaty-mandated imagery resolution limit, both digital and wet film cameras must adhere to the same standards in order to be used on board an Open Skies plane.  There is no significant intelligence advantage that is provided by digital cameras, other than post processing of the original image, removing the need to process hundreds of wet film images and create print duplicates.  Changing the type of sensor from analog to digital is akin to a professional photographer switching from using a 35mm DSLR camera to a digital DSLR camera, assuming both gave the same resolution image.

When asked about Russian restrictions on the Open Skies Treaty overflights over the Russian Federation, and if they impacted the observation missions the RCAF routinely flies over the Russian Federation in those same restricted areas, Lieutenant-Colonel Veillette stated ...
". . . somewhat, but at the end I don't think the treaty is degraded by any shape or form . . . operationally it makes things a little bit more complicated, but not totally (insurmountable), there's always a way."  
Specifically on the topic of the flight distance restriction of 500km imposed over Kaliningrad:
"If I cannot see everything in 500km it doesn't mean I cannot go a 2nd time and do another 500km, if I wanted to do 1000km there; so in the end, is it degraded? Somewhat, because I would rather do it once."
...which, again, is a far cry from the Pentagon / DoD narrative which depicted the Russian-imposed restrictions as being heinous acts, stopping just short of suggesting the United States should pull out of treaty because of them.

United States Marine Corps Lieutenant general Lt. Gen. Stewart, the Director of the US Defence Information Agency, accused the Russians of spying on critical infrastructure and gathering "foundational intelligence"; suggesting that some sites being photographed in the United States by the Russians aren't military in nature, and taking observation photos of them is taking advantage of the treaty for espionage purposes.  I asked RCAF Lieutenant-Colonel Veillette about Russian Open Skies overflights taking aerial photography of infrastructure, power facilities, and other areas of seemingly questionable military value in Canada:
"people have the misconception because we're flying (a) military airplane to do those missions, that (we) are solely looking at military resources . . . every country who flies Open Skies is not solely flying over (military sites)."
Many non-military sites are valuable intelligence targets that would indicate an imminent threat to Russia; rail yards, transportation hubs, factories, power stations... all have military value, and if Canada was preparing for war, they would each show changes.  Green vehicles being moved by rail.  Machines of war being produced at domestic facilities.  Fighter jets being lined up at alternate airfields.  It isn't sufficient to just look at military bases, and Canada doesn't limit our Open Skies Treaty overflights to purely military targets in Russia either. (more here)

I was very pleased to have the opportunity to speak with Lieutenant-Colonel Veillette, and hope I will be able to do so again.  As the Section Head of SJS ACV 4, the unit which performs the Open Skies overflights by Canada, facilitates Russian overflights of Canada, and facilitates transit of Russian Open Skies missions en-route to the United States, his in-depth insight and experience clarified several topics of interest.

October 01, 2016

Russian Open Skies Treaty overflight of the USA | September 26th-30th 2016

Nevada Test Site - Gate 1
Taken April 2 2010 - Photo by Bill Ebbesen (Wikipedia)
While I don't intend to blog about every single Open Skies Treaty overflight of the United States of America by the Russian Air Force, Nevada is a hub of historically significant military sites, and continues to be a hotbed of military testing facilities, restricted airspace, and military bases. Generally, the Russian Air Force doesn't pick the places they photograph; they are the operators and tip of the spear;.  The RuAF execute requests by other agencies for imagery of American locations of interest, not just requests from the Russian Ministry of Defence. Since each Open Skies mission has a limited amount of distance it can cover, as mandated by the Treaty, the Russians do not try and fly over all of the US at once, they break it up into zones. This flight was an observation mission over California and Nevada. If you zoom in to a reasonable detail level and follow the flight path you'll find a "who's who" (a what's what?) of DoD and DoE locations, as well as other places of interest to the Russian Federation.  Reverse-engineering this flight path, you can discern where the US Military is conducting their most sensitive testing, training, research, and any number of other "interesting" things.

Previous Open Skies treaty posts here for background.

Thank you @ktul_adsb for spotting additional points of interest!

NB: RF-85655 just took off en route to CFB Trenton, Iceland, and ultimately Kubinka (Кубинка) Air Base, originating from Travis AFB where last week's mission was being based from.



September 18, 2016

Tracking Russian Open Skies Tu-154M / Tu-214ON Aircraft

Photo by Mark Beal (@veryboeing) during RF-85655's stop-over in Halifax, Nova Scotia on 2016-09-01
While American Open Skies flights have been using the same planes since the Treaty on Open Skies (Open Skies Treaty) came into force in 2002, the Russian Federation are phasing in a new pair of Tupolev Tu-214ON planes.  The Tupolev Tu-154M is still being used for Canadian / US / Danish overflights, and I am not sure how long it will be before the Tu-214ON takes over.

Tupolev Tu-154M/LK-1
Reg: RA-85655
C/N 89A798
ICAO 194E97 (154E97?)

Tupolev Tu-214ON
Reg: RA-64519
C/N 42709019
ICAO 14FC07

Reg: RA-64525
C/N 41003025
ICAO 14FC0D

It seems like only RA-64525 can be found on adsbexchange.com, and neither of the new planes can be found on flightradar24.com.  Hopefully they fix that soon!

September 17, 2016

Tracking American Open Skies OC-135B/W Aircraft

"An OC-135B aircraft sits on an airfield at Ulan-Ude, Russia prior to an Open Skies flight.
DTRA conducts inspection flights with the U.S. Air Force in accordance with the Open Skies treaty."
(DTRA photo - March 3, 2009) Flickr
The United States operates two Open Skies Treaty-approved planes designed to perform observation missions over Russia, or other countries.  The aircraft are based out of Offutt AFB for ops, training and maintenance, and function as part of the 55th Wing, 45th Reconnaissance Squadron (per Wikipedia).

The United States Air Force does not publish press releases, or mention to the media, when they perform Open Skies Treaty overflights; to keep track of the flights using OSINT, adsbexchange.com and flightradar24.com can be leveraged.  

Using Google, the tail numbers became clear  (Registration / ICAO):

Boeing OC-135B Open Skies (61-2670 / AE08D5)
Boeing OC-135W Open Skies (61-2672 / AE08D6)

While the transponder beaconing from 61-2670 broadcasts that it is a Boeing OC-135B, 61-2672 reports itself as an OC-135W.  Contradictory information online suggests both planes are of the OC-135W variety, but I can't find the differences between one and the other.  It could be a cosmetic difference, I'm unclear what the difference in designation would be between the OC-135B and OC-135W.  Regardless, if you sign up for an account on FlightRadar24.com you can program an alert to be emailed to you when the flights are detected by one of their global network of receivers.

If you want to look at historical flight information, adsbechange.com may be more useful for that task (and free!).

Here is a direct link to a dynamic report containing the most recent OC-135B/W flights (it takes a while to load, hang tight)


Callsigns

There is some confusion about the callsigns that are used, and it comes from the historical report mentioned above.  It seems that when an Open Skies overflight mission is underway, the callsign used, for either airframe, is OSY12F (does F stand for overFlight?), and when the plane is in transit the callsign is OSY12T (does this indicate "in Transit"?).  

The two planes also use other callsigns; and I'm not sure what they are otherwise commonly used for, if they are indicative of any specific operations that are not Open Skies related.  

From October 13th 2015 and September 17th 2016 I noticed the following callsigns being used by 61-2670 and 61-2672, as documented on adsbexchange.com
COBRA12
COBRA23
COBRA24
COBRA32
COBRA35
COBRA43
COBRA44
COBRA45
COBRA46
COBRA52
COBRA53
COBRA55
COBRA70
COBRA72
SABRE35
TORA82
TRUBS72
...suggestions as to what operations these callsigns might be indicative of, or confirmation they mean nothing at all, would be welcome!  ( Some callsigns have been noted previously from 55 Wing / 45 Recon here and here, but do not indicate if they suggest a specific function (training/deployed ops/etc) )