I've written a lot about the Open Skies Treaty (here), and this week the Russian Federation Open Skies Treaty certified Tu-154M is once again in the skies over the United States. There has been less media coverage this time, perhaps because the media didn't realize these flights normally happen once every month or two, and over cycled just weeks ago. In short, 34 nations are signatory to the treaty, that lets the signatories overfly each others territory, with short notice, and members of the overflown nation's military on board, to take 30cm resolution pictures of sites of interest. 30cm is the defined maximum image resolution, and was the same when the Russian's used wet film. The rest of the countries still use wet film, so far. This time, the Russians flew into Travis AFB on the West Coast, after stops for fuel in Iceland and Canada, and started observation flights Thursday March 18th 2017. The flight plan would have been tabled either late Monday or early Tuesday, and a memo to all US Military (and related to military) sites that were going to be overflown would have been sent to ensure all unicorns were in their stables, and all stolen alien technology was back underground at Area 51, or, you know, whatever.
Here is a quick and dirty map of the locations they overflew. Why? Well, think of it this way. The sites that the RuAF are taking pictures of have been requested by the Russian Intelligence Community. Something at these sites is interesting to someone, likely in the Russian defence industry. But don't they have Google Maps? Yes, but Google Maps / Bing / Nokia are all routinely tampered with by "Agencies", and the services are happy to do so to keep on governments' good sides. Entire airports can be removed and farms photo-shopped in. Buildings are over-exposed to blot out what's on top. Facilities are entirely pixelated. Imagery is overtly tampered with, shadows moved, objects cloned. What you see on Google Maps is what the government is allowing you to see; Russia knows that. While 30cm resolution isn't the greatest commercially available, it is good enough to show tanks loaded on rail cars, new buildings that have cropped up out of nowhere, etc.. They know their camera, and the pictures it takes, have not been tampered with.
Using its new-last-year Digital Electro Optical sensor, the flight has been basing itself out of Travis AFB in California, and at the end of the first day of observation flights, I believe it has taken pictures of the following locations, based on the altitude and airspeed. Looking at the map below, and where you see a red dot, the plane was between 290-310kn, the sweet spot to take pictures.
The hills east of Hollister / San Benito County, California.
(this list is incomplete)
Friday May 19th was the 2nd day of overflights and the Russians plotted a very similar route to what they flew in September of 2016. Unfortunately, they varied their speed more than May 18th so it was a little harder to nail down exactly what they were taking pictures of. My educated guesses are below:
With two observation flights complete, the Russians flew the first leg of their trip back to Moscow on May 20th, stopping for an overnight stay in Canada at CFB Trenton, which is a treaty approved refuelling stop. All countries which are signatory to the Treaty on Open Skies must provide logistical support to Open Skies Treaty transit flights.
April 13-14th 2017 the Russian Federation conducted an overflight of the United States in compliance with the Open Skies Treaty, with members of the USAF on board.
You will notice the sites along the Eastern Seaboard are all at locations where the Russian Navy AGI Viktor Leonov AGI spotted in February and March. Coincidence? Absolutely not. The Viktor Leonov's mission is to profile subs, investigate coastal radar, sonar, subsurface sensors, etc. The Open Skies Observation flight was more than likely to check out the same sites it was performing ELINT on, to "see" from above the interesting things it picked up while it was at least 12 nautical miles from shore.
Canadian crew members performing a flight under the Open Skies Treaty over Russia, pose next to their C-130H aircraft (29 May 2003) Credit: OSCE/Unknown Photographer
On the heels of American military leaders and American congressional representatives accusing Russia of conducting espionage under the guise of treaty defined observation flights over the United States, in the most anti-climatic way possible, there are no indications that Russian observation flights over Canada are doing anything outside of what they should be. The Russians are observing Canadian military posture, and dual-purpose civilian infrastructure coast to coast, and confirming we're not readying an invasion force, or helping anyone else amass one either. In fact, all indications suggest the Russians are doing exactly what the Canadians say they do over Russia; observing and reporting on activity that could be suspicious, and base-lining behaviours that aren't suspicious in locations that could be military or have military value. I strongly suspect the American military leadership and Republicans who are against the Open Skies Treaty are doing so for disingenuous reasons (and my previous blog post about that is here)
Over six months ago I requested all flight plans, mission plans, reports and certifications regarding the Russian flights, and equipment used, over Canada. The Canadian Department of National Defence will send you a copy of what I received on a CD, if you request it. Once the file is closed (I'm still arguing a couple of points). You will be able to search for it here; look for document # A-2015-01490. The request is currently 392 pages (and 264.1Mb) of reports, mostly text, with some pictures and diagrams.
You're a weirdo; why would you want all that?
Well, Canada is a signatory to the Open Skies Treaty; as are the United States, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Belarus, Russia, etc... Every year the Royal Canadian Air Force flies observation missions, using wet film photography, and a CC-130 Hercules, over Russia, and potentially other signatory states. Really tho, it's mostly Russia. Russia reciprocates by flying their Tu-154M Lk-1 Open Skies aircraft over to Canada, and conducting observation flights of their own with RCAF representation on the flight.
I wondered, since I'm Canadian, and feel our air-photographable military activity is rather boring, what could they possibly be taking pictures of? So, I filed an Access to information and Privacy request with DND requesting the documents that are are mandated by the treaty. Until now, no details have been available about Russia's overflights Canada conducted under the treaty; the information was labelled "TREATY SENSITIVE INFORMATION", and some of the documentation was classified "NATO RESTRICTED" (NR).
From this ATIP request, we know there have been ten Open Skies overflights performed by the Russian Federation over Canada between 2002 and 2014 (inclusive). There was an 11th overflight in December 2015, but that was outside of the scope of my request, since I made my request in November.
When and where were these overflights, and what were they looking at?
The following are the arrival dates, departure dates, official Open Skies flight reference numbers, and relative order of flights While the treaty was implemented in 2002, the Russians were unable to fly over Canada until they had a certified plane that could fly the extended distances over Canada (and the US) in 2004.
This confirms that Russia is over flying Canada almost yearly, but where are they going, and what are they taking pictures of? This is where things get very difficult for me to convey, because the data sent to me from my Access to Information and Privacy request is full of coordinates and locations, but none of them are in text; each page has been reproduced as an image, probably due to paranoia about disclosing metadata. I would like to map out the route digitally on Google Maps and SHOW you where they went, but for now I'll just tell you some of the locations which were highlighted in the formerly NATO Restricted after-mission reports. At about 5000Km per flight, the Russian Open Skies flights cover a lot of ground. The overflights clearly targeted many sites, such as...
(Former) Pinetree Line Long Range Radar Stations
I'm thrilled to see the Russians are photographing old Cold War Pinetree Line sites; we have some common interests! If you think aerial photography of a decommissioned Cold War site is a pretty ridiculous idea, think of it this way; from a Russian military point of view, why wouldn't we re-use those places for new bases? They are already levelled, most still have access to rail and highways, they have power nearby, telecom, etc.. From my Russian research I can tell you many of their old Soviet-era military bases have been re-purposed and are still military bases - I speculate they figure we'd do the same.
Canadian Chemical and Biological Weapons Research Facilities
The Russians also overflew Suffield, Alberta, where the Defence Research and Development Canada Suffield Research Centre is located and the Canadian National Single Small-Scale Facility (SSSF) is located; where Canada keeps it's small amount of Schedule 1 Chemical weapons, that are allowed under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), for research purposes. Examples of Schedule 1 Chemical weapons are: VX, Sarin, Ricin, Mustard gas... I can't find record of having Bio-safety Level 4 (BSL 4) pathogens stored there, but Bio-safety Level 3 (BSL 3) pathogens are.
CFAD Dundurn, CFAD Angus, CFAD Rocky Point, and CFAD Bedford
They checked up on all of our Canadian Forces Ammunition Depots, coast to coast. I would think that was fairly predictable, since activity at those sites would indicate we were getting ready to move weapons somewhere. Also, good pictures of those facilities might provide clues as to what kinds of ammunition we are storing at some of those sites.
Signals Intelligence Stations?
Between Masset, Leitrim, Gander, and Alert I only see overflights and pictures of Leitrim; maybe with additional analysis of their flight plans I can determine if Masset and/or Gander were also photographed. They did not fly all the way to Alert, nor do I expect they will, since it would take a long time to get there, and they might overshoot their treaty defined maximum distance. Plus, like Sarah Palin can see Russia from her house, the Russians can "see" Alert from their side of the Arctic.
Some Republicans in the United States Congress, factions within the US State Department, and some senior members of the US Military want the American people, and NATO allies, to believe that the Russian Open Skies Treaty overflights are being abused by the Russians, used as an intelligence gathering apparatus, spying on civilian infrastructure without any military merit. These forces in the government and military ultimately want the program shut down. To those who would believe them, I say - Well of course they're gathering intelligence; that's the whole purpose. Intelligence on whether industrial areas are being militarized would signal an uptick in military hardware production. Intelligence on rail and road networks to see if they are being used to transport large amounts of military gear. Intelligence on uranium mining and processing facilities, to see if production might signal the fabrication elsewhere of nuclear weapons. Intelligence on Canadian military ammunition depots, bases, and all sorts of military facilities would show a direct correlation to preparations for deployments. These are the things that are shown to be getting photographed; we should expect it, and welcome it, because we do the same thing over Russia.
Transportation
Let's take the railway as an example of civilian Infrastructure they are likely observing and taking pictures of. Canadian rail is privately (civilian) owned, and stretches coast to coast. It is used for everything; wheat from the prairies, bulk chemicals, oil from Alberta, cars from Southern Ontario, Aluminium from Quebec, freight from everywhere.... oh, and heavy military equipment. While the Canadian rail system could be called civilian infrastructure, it certainly isn't something they'd want to skip when photographing Canada - that's how he armies of the world usually ship their gear!
Is this an example of the "infrastructure" the Americans promoting the new Red Scare want you to be afraid of the Russians photographing? If you study history at all you'll notice almost anything civilian becomes a military asset during a war, or during the preparations for war. Monitoring "infrastructure" is very much in-line with the spirit of the treaty, if you consider what preparing for war would look like. Civilian factories can start pumping out green trucks and weapons. Vehicles being moved around by rail could be getting deployed to harbours for trans-Atlantic or trans-Pacific deployments. Green trucks parked in parking lots could be waiting for supplies. Air bases could be preparing planes for operations... anything goes. Furthermore; how would you know if something was or wasn't out of the ordinary? You'd need a baseline; pictures "before" suspected preparations started, to compare with. Nowhere in almost 400 pages of reports and flight plans did I see any mention by the Canadian Forces Arms Control Verification team that any of these flights by the Russians were out of character for an Open Skies overflight. Maybe they missed that detail? I think that would be unlikely. The mission reports are extremely detailed; including the mention of walking tours in Ottawa on the Russians' day off, a tour of Kingston on a rain-day at Trenton, and how they very much appreciated the accommodations and food they were provided during their stay. While the American military would like us to believe these are the Boogeymen, and increase defence spending for this grave threat, I see no indication of any suspicion or apprehension in any of these reports, written by the Canadian Forces, and distributed to our NATO partners, which would back that narrative up.
Use commercial satellite imagery, they said. It's good enough, they said.
The American military would like the people of the world to believe that commercial satellite imagery would be good enough for the signatory nations who are part of the Open Skies Treaty to rely upon, and use it for national security verification purposes. Doing so would raise a major problem that strangely hasn't come up in the Congressional meetings so frequently quoted in the American media; tampering. The Open Skies Treaty defines a framework of tamper-proof cameras and procedures for handling wet film that ensure no tampering by any nation can take place; a representative of the overflown country is even present while the wet film is processed. The same cannot be done with commercial satellite imagery. Considering the budget of world's intelligence agencies, not just the American ones, it is inconceivable that they would be unable to tamper with the digital imagery before, or after, they are downloaded to a satellite ground terminal. You can also be assured that the American National Reconnaissance Office, who have spent untold Billions on spy satellites, will not be using that commercial imagery for anything at all.
Reciprocity
What isn't spoken of very much is we do the exact same thing back at them; The United States, Canada, and other Western-aligned nations routinely fly over Russia and take pictures of the same types of facilities as they do to us. Don't we all have the same objectives, and aren't we looking for the same things? The Open Skies Treaty is as relevant today as when Ike proposed it originally, and former Republican President George HW Bush revived in 1989. I propose that factions of the US Government and US Military are deliberately trying to mislead the American people, and those of the world, into believing the treaty is no longer of any use. I don't believe their arguments hold up under scrutiny, but I have yet to see anyone ask questions which are critical of the positions of the Admirals and Generals who are trying to destroy the treaty. Why is that?
T-72B1 at the Russian Arms Expo 2013
Photo Credit: Noam Eshel, Defense-Update
In May 2016 documents were released, or leaked, on Russia's State procurement agency's web site showing a deal with Nicaragua to sell 50 T-72B1 tanks to their military (ref). More recently, Bill Gertz of the Washington Free Beacon published the deal included provision for a SIGINT station to be co-located with a GLONASS satellite ground terminal (ref). Shortly after, those claims were rebuffed by the Russian media (ref). So who are you going to believe?
Also, where are the tanks now, and how do you get 20 tanks to Nicaragua from Russia anyway?
You could load them on a transport plane, but that's by far the most expensive way; just float them over on a boat!
Remember back in 2008, there was an arms embargo on South Sudan, and Ukraine was smuggling them tanks via Kenya on board the MV Faina, a 500ft cargo vessel, but the shipment was intercepted by those pesky Somali pirates and delayed for 5 months? No? Let me jog your memory.
The following video, according to the Kenyan Defense Department, has nothing to do with the smuggled tanks that were offloaded, and are not being transported to South Sudan. This is just an ordinary military exercise, that happens to involve a lot of tanks, being shipped toward South Sudan... Seriously?
From this we know a 500ft Roll On Roll Off (RoRo) civilian cargo vessel can carry 33 tanks that weigh about 41 Tons each. As you see in the AP video, a RoRo allows vehicles to roll on, then roll off; no crane needed. Otherwise, you'd need a 45 Ton crane in order to lift a 41 Ton tank off a cargo ship, and depending where you're offloading, the port may not have one.
In 2015 Iraq ordered some modernized T-72s as well, to replace their American M1A1 Abrams tanks. To an American this might be viewed as a downgrade, but the Abrams is the Cadillac of battle tanks, and costs 1000% more than the T-72, which has been greatly improve over the years, and is arguably only marginally less capable than than Abrams.
Here are pictures of the Iraqi T-72s on board, and being lifted out of an unnamed general cargo vessel (ref) in the Umm Qasr Port, Iraq's only deep water port, and I believe the only port capable of off-loading these tanks - in 2015.
Using the information about those two previous tank shipments, I went looking for a civilian cargo ship, either a container ship or a RoRo, that was in transit, or had arrived in Nicaragua, from Russia, and had likely departed in late April or early May.
But what port in Nicaragua would it be going to?
As it turns out, the port of Corinto, which I was familiar with from last years visit by the Fotiy Krylov and the Marshal Gelovani, is the largest and busiest port in Nicaragua, and the only one in Nicaragua with a 45 Ton crane capable of dead-lifting T-72 tanks (ref and ref), unless the ship used is a RoRo.
So we know how big a ship we need, what sort of a ship could do the job, and where it's likely to go.
How do you find the ship? AIS, my friend. Looking on MarineTraffic.com for arrivals and departures from Corinto, I found mention of a general cargo ship called the AMGU, a freshly (red) painted Belize flagged general cargo vessel reportedly owned in 2015 by INDERTON LIMITED S.A., and managed by ACREX CORP., Ltd; both listed with the same address in Vladivostok. Sounds legit right? Not just a shell company created to operate ships at arms length from the military or government, Air America-style?
m/v AMGU
m/v AMGU in Vladivostok, 2015 Sergei Skriabin / MarineTraffic.com
The m/v AMGU left Vladivostok on May 5th 2016 at 17:04UTC, and arrived at Corinto Nicaragua on June 5th. She left again on June 9th at 04:39LT, reportedly heading for Vladivostok, after being in port for just over three days.
One more thing that makes me suspect these facts all line up; the Russians established a training base (Mariscal Georgy Konstantinovich Zhúkov) at the Nicaraguan mechanized Infantry Brigade (BIM) in Managua in 2013, which is only a few hours from the Port of Corinto; where the tanks are expected to be initially deployed to. I think it all lines up, so my money is on the tanks being transported by the m/v AMGU.
(I'm unclear if there are multiple ships named "AMGU"; here is another)
Here is more video; including the modernized T-72 in action at the Russian Arms Expo in 2013.
I signed up for MarineTraffic.com's notification service to tell me when ships of (my) interest come and go from Port. I'd sort of forgotten I'd done so, as I hadn't received a notice from any of my alerts lately. AIS transponders on military ships get turned off when they're being stealthy; but a ship that wears more than one hat might choose not turn off their transponder, else it would be suspicious. One such ship, that I strongly believe serves multiple roles, is the Fotiy Krylov (СБ-135 Фотий Крылов IMO:8613346 MMSI:273441150). The Fotiy Krylov is the twin of the Nikolay Chiker (СБ-131 Николай Чикер IMO:8613334 MMSI:273543910), but serves the Pacific fleet, sailing out of the home of the Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet,Vladivostok (Владивосто́к) from what roughly translates to Golden Horn Bay, or Zolotoy Rog Bay (Золотой Рог) .
Photo Credit: Unknown | Location: Port of Limassol
Both ships have very unique capabilities; underwater cameras, specialized gear, and a moon pool allowing un-monitored underwater operations. The ships are officially ocean going tugs, but I believe they are used for much more.
The Krylov left Vladivostok, executed some very interesting maneuvers at sea, and returned to harbour back at Vladivostok... all in 6 hours. From the pattern, what do you think they were doing? That's more than a casual shake-down or idle cruise.
It looks to me like they were steering in large sweeping patterns listening for something, found something, and returned to the military side of the port. Whatever it was, they didn't have an exact location of it, but circled in when they found what they were looking for.
The question is, what did they retrieve?
Я бы очень хотел недавний снимок корабля Фотий Крылов в золотой рог!
From my previous post, I aggregated as much open source information as I could, and compiled the following specifications for the Fotiy Krylov (and Nikolay Chiker, its twin). These are the largest and strongest ocean going tugs in the world.
"Both ships constructed by Hollming, Rauma, Finland. Laid down in 1987 and entered service with the Soviet Navy in 1989. Under ownership of Russian company Sovfracht, operated by Greek company Tsavliris during the 1990s before returning to Russian naval service in about 2006. Both tugs are probably still available for commercial use. Equipped with three water cannons." -Jane's Fighting Ships
"Built by Hollming (Rauma), Helsinki and completed 12 April 1989. A second of class A Krylov SB 135 completed 30 June 1989 but was sold illegally to Greece in March 1993 and for a short time renamed Tsavliris Giant. These are the largest salvage tugs in the world with a 250 ton bollard pull on each of two towing winches with a third 60 ton winch. The crew includes two divers and there are two decompression chambers. Four firefighting foam/water guns are fitted on the bridge/mast. Designed to operate in extreme temperatures. SB 131 is in the Northern Fleet." -Jane's Fighting Ships
"Rescue tug "Nikoli Chiker" was built in 1989 in Finland, commissioned by the Navy of the USSR. It was intended to be used primarily for towing large ships, ie, aircraft carriers, and conduct rescue operations. The construction of these two vessels, this one and the class leader the "Foty Krilov", cost the navy $ 50 million. Immediately after construction during the tests, type "Fory Krylov" was recorded in the Guinness Book of Records as the vessel which can create the most powerful traction when towing. Power plant is 25, 000 horsepower. These characteristics, as well as design features allow it to tow vessels of up to 250 thousand tons at a rough sea at eight points at a speed of four knots. Performance still unrivaled. Although by designation it is just a tug boat, even the most powerful in the world, this hides its other capabilities. This is a rescue complex. Installed on it is diving equipment which allows for complex deep-water work. It is equipped with a pressure chamber, dry suits, underwater cameras, the means to blur the ground, underwater welding and cutting, metal detectors. In addition to all tug capable apply for ships in distress flame retardant liquid, using their own equipment to extinguish fires. Helipad supports all-weather 24-hour operation of the helicopter with refueling. Fully equipped operating room and three wards." -Warfare.ru, Wikimapia
"The moored lifting power of these tugs is 230 tons. Each is equipped with diving equipment for depths of up to 60 meters (nearly 197 feet). The tugs are also equipped with two 8-ton capacity cranes. They are also equipped with water cannon. Additional equipment includes a 3-ton capacity crane; two 32-ton salvage winches; two 10-ton salvage winches; two 150-ton towing winches; one 60-ton towing winch; two 400-ton cable/chain stoppers; a 250-ton bollard pull and a 441-pound transfer system for dry cargo and personnel. HULL: These ships have a burly profile. The raked bow has a large-radius nose rimmed with a bulwark, a forecastle extending well aft, tall superstructure topped by a bridge with 360-deg visibility, paired stacks on the after corners of the superstructure and a low-freeboard stern with curved counter. The helicopter platform is forward of the bridge and can accept a medium helicopter. The ships began service in the Soviet navy. Both were named in 1991. FOTIY KRYLOV was leased to a Greek commercial company in 1992 and renamed M/V GIANT, then renamed again as TSAVLIRIS GIANT. NICOLAY CHIKER also was leased to a Greek company. In 1995, both were returned for further service in the Russian navy." -MilitaryPeriscope.com
Credit: Lloyd's Register - Fairplay's Internet Ships Register Jane's Fighting Ships MilitaryPeriscope.com warfare.ru Wikipedia Last recorded position:
