From a discussion with
JJ I think the UTC/JST conversion may have been messed up, or the reported time by the US Navy and Japanese Coast Guard was not representative of the time of the collision, only when the collision was reported. I doubt anyone in the US military would mix up time zones, since they're very accurate regarding time. The US Navy press release reports the incident happened at 2:30am "LOCAL TIME", which is Japan Standard Time or JST, and which is UTC+9. The AIS data I scraped from MarineTraffic.com shows accurate to-the-second (or less) data, so that is what I can rely on for accuracy. Could the ACX Crystal have hit the USS Fitzgerald at full speed just before 16:30Z, rather than ~17:30Z as the US Navy said in their press release? I think so. With that in mind, watch the video again. Did the ACX Crystal strike the USS Fitzgerald while on a 70 degree course before 16:30Z, then while on autopilot, correct itself after the USS Fitzgerald was knocked free? If so, it took another hour for the crew to figure out what happened, turn the ACX Crystal around, and return to the USS Fitzgerald - it's unclear if they even knew what they struck. JJ suggested maybe the time the accident was called in was ~2:30am JST, but the strike had happened earlier. This makes significant sense to me, and explains the "U turn" they performed, especially if you realize the impact was one 30 minutes before the u-turn.
AIS Data
Timestamp (UTC) | Source | Speed (kn) | Latitude | Longitude | Course |
2017-06-16 16:19 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 18.1 | 34.5037 | 139.008 | 69 |
2017-06-16 16:21 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 18.4 | 34.50739 | 139.0208 | 70 |
2017-06-16 16:24 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 18.4 | 34.51177 | 139.0358 | 70 |
2017-06-16 16:27 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 18.5 | 34.51718 | 139.054 | 70 |
2017-06-16 16:30 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 17.3 | 34.52216 | 139.0723 | 88 |
2017-06-16 16:33 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 11.2 | 34.51329 | 139.0761 | 135 |
2017-06-16 16:36 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 14.6 | 34.50962 | 139.0878 | 118 |
2017-06-16 16:38 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 13.1 | 34.5119 | 139.0944 | 41 |
2017-06-16 16:40 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 15.3 | 34.51949 | 139.1043 | 70 |
2017-06-16 16:43 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 15.2 | 34.52352 | 139.1145 | 56 |
2017-06-16 16:46 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 15.4 | 34.52807 | 139.1226 | 56 |
Those who know my blog will not be disapointed; of course I want to show you the minute-by-minute account of the ACX Crystal's journey and try and tease out what we can from it. Above you have the AIS data from what I believe covers the entire horrific event, and the ACX Crystal leaving the scene of the collision. Yes. LEAVING the scene, only to return an hour later. I'll get back to that. I believe this shows that 1) nobody was on the bridge of the Crystal and 2) "Iron Mike" was in controls for a full 15min *after* the collision; see item 1. There have been no reports that any distress call went out until after the ACX Crystal came back at 17:30Z, an hour after the collision.
Some people hate analogies, but here's one anyway. If you were in the driver seat of a self-driving car, hit another car, and your self-driving car kept driving along the road... how long would it take you to hit the off button? Well, it took the crew of the Crystal, who I'm positive were not on the bridge, 15 minutes to find the autopilot off button. Either they were very disoriented by the impact, or they weren't on the bridge to begin with, and had to get up to the bridge in order to shut down the autopilot.
16:27Z
All is well, the ship is on a 70° course, sailing at a fast 18.5kn.
16:30Z
Course has changed +18°, speed dropped slightly, 1.2kn. The collision has likely already happened
16:33Z
Course is now +65° off original, and speed is down to 11.2kn. Something is clearly wrong, the collision has likely happened, and the 30,000ton container ship has been spun 65° off course by the impact or thrust of the USS Fitzgerald's engines.
16:36Z
It gets weirder. Speed is back up to 14.6kn, and the ship is coming back on course, now "only" +48° off her original course. Did the ACX Crystal spear the USS Fitzgerald, and just shake it off? That's right, after smashing into another ship, the 30,000 ton container ship is swinging around and increasing speed. If anyone was at the helm, this would not be happening.
16:38Z
ACX Crystal has now swung around in 2 minutes to a course of 41°, -22° off the original course, and is seemingly trying to correct its course toward her original destination. Almost like nobody is at the helm, and the ship is being controlled by Iron Mike (the autopilot)
16:40Z
Course corrected, back on a heading of 70°, speed is up to 15.3kn, and the ship is steaming away from the accident. It's been ten minutes since the collision, and nobody has disengaged the autopilot yet. How do I know? Because they haven't reduced speed or turned around.
16:43Z, 16:46Z
Course corrections, but still no slowing down, now up to 15.4kn. How far are the crew quarters from the bridge on that ship?
Timestamp (UTC) | Source | Speed (kn) | Latitude | Longitude | Course |
2017-06-16 16:49 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 14 | 34.53545 | 139.143 | 73 |
2017-06-16 16:52 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 12.9 | 34.53923 | 139.1572 | 70 |
2017-06-16 16:55 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 12.2 | 34.54282 | 139.168 | 62 |
2017-06-16 16:58 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 12.3 | 34.5469 | 139.1778 | 63 |
2017-06-16 17:00 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 12.4 | 34.55079 | 139.1871 | 62 |
2017-06-16 17:03 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 11.9 | 34.55532 | 139.1976 | 64 |
2017-06-16 17:06 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 7.6 | 34.56187 | 139.199 | 305 |
2017-06-16 17:09 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 9.4 | 34.56249 | 139.1927 | 263 |
2017-06-16 17:11 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 10 | 34.56231 | 139.1911 | 261 |
2017-06-16 17:14 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 12.4 | 34.5595 | 139.172 | 260 |
2017-06-16 17:18 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 12.9 | 34.55806 | 139.1623 | 260 |
2017-06-16 17:20 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 13.7 | 34.55479 | 139.1448 | 256 |
2017-06-16 17:24 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 14.1 | 34.5519 | 139.1302 | 255 |
2017-06-16 17:26 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 14.4 | 34.54954 | 139.12 | 254 |
2017-06-16 17:29 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 14.6 | 34.54608 | 139.1029 | 259 |
2017-06-16 17:33 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 13 | 34.54381 | 139.0875 | 260 |
2017-06-16 17:35 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 11.7 | 34.54243 | 139.0776 | 259 |
2017-06-16 17:38 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 9.9 | 34.53842 | 139.0665 | 243 |
17:03Z
While the ship has slowed to just under 13kn, it still hasn't turned around.
17:06Z
The Crystal is turning hard and has slowed somewhat.
17:09Z
The Crystal has turned completely around and is doing ~13kn toward the location where they hit "something". I don't think anyone aboard the ACX Crystal knows by this point what they hit. There are no reports that any distress calls by this time. There has been no suggestion they called the Japanese Coast Guard by this time for any information either. What did they think they hit?
17:38Z
Over an hour after the initial collision. The US Navy reported the accident happened around this time. I believe what they meant was the distress call was received by the Japanese Coast Guard around this time, because it would be unthinkable that you, a 30,000 ton container ship, would collide with another ship, and not mention it to the Coast Guard, for an hour?
Timestamp (UTC) | Source | Speed (kn) | Latitude | Longitude | Course |
2017-06-16 17:52 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 2.9 | 34.52554 | 139.0555 | 90 |
2017-06-16 17:56 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 3.2 | 34.52657 | 139.0587 | 59 |
2017-06-16 18:00 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 3.2 | 34.52952 | 139.0609 | 354 |
2017-06-16 18:02 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 4 | 34.53196 | 139.0605 | 352 |
2017-06-16 18:06 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 4 | 34.53695 | 139.0602 | 12 |
2017-06-16 18:11 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 3.9 | 34.54041 | 139.0638 | 49 |
2017-06-16 18:15 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 3.9 | 34.5432 | 139.068 | 39 |
2017-06-16 18:18 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 3.7 | 34.54664 | 139.0684 | 330 |
2017-06-16 18:23 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 4.8 | 34.54985 | 139.0638 | 309 |
2017-06-16 18:25 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 5.2 | 34.55213 | 139.0606 | 305 |
2017-06-16 18:28 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 4.9 | 34.55527 | 139.0573 | 339 |
2017-06-16 18:36 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 1 | 34.56038 | 139.057 | 5 |
2017-06-16 18:41 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 0.4 | 34.56104 | 139.0567 | 296 |
2017-06-16 18:43 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 0.5 | 34.56106 | 139.0564 | 266 |
2017-06-16 18:47 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 0.9 | 34.561 | 139.0554 | 270 |
2017-06-16 18:57 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 2.4 | 34.5608 | 139.0556 | 92 |
2017-06-16 19:00 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 3.4 | 34.56094 | 139.0583 | 84 |
2017-06-16 19:03 (UTC) | Terr-AIS | 4 | 34.5612 | 139.0618 | 82 |
17:52Z onward
There is a 14 minute gap that I can't explain, did they turn off AIS?
From this time forward, regular updates keep coming in at 2-3min intervals. Speed and course changes seem to suggest they were looking for survivors or trying to otherwise assist.
In conclusion I have absolutely no idea what happened out there; I'm trying to think through the story with the available evidence and string it together. By my understanding of the events I believe there was nobody on the bridge of he ACX Crystal at the time of the collision, and for ~15 minutes afterwards showed no signs of being manned with anyone on the bridge as the course auto-corrected, and increased speed, moving way from the impact site, trying to come back up to the original speed. The damage on the bow, below the water line, slowed the ship down from it's original 18kn due to drag. Knowing when the Japanese Coast Guard was called is a detail that has not been revealed yet, and we all know there's a recording of it out there somewhere.
I'll update as I find out more, or more evidence is revealed.
For updates on the situation follow the 7th Fleet on Twitter, or check their webpage for updates:
http://www.c7f.navy.mil/Media/News/